Danger and opportunity of aluminum industry under epidemic situation

Views:763 Author:Site Editor Publish Time:2020-07-15 09:39:29 Orgin:Site

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In China, novel coronavirus pneumonia is a major event in Shanghai. Every year in July, most of the aluminum industry members will gather in the city to participate in the domestic industry exhibition, which is hosted by the reed exhibition group. The exhibition has been held for 15 years, but this year, due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the exhibition will have to be postponed to the next year. However, in order to meet the business needs and enthusiasm of the industry, on the afternoon of July 2, the Organizing Committee of aluminum industry exhibition organized an online live conference on the topic of "aluminum processing development direction and opportunities under the post epidemic situation - plate and strip" through the Internet.

At the meeting, three experts were invited to introduce and analyze the development situation and future development trend of China's aluminum industry under the influence of the epidemic situation, respectively We shared views on hot topics of the industry with more than 10000 online industry friends, and conducted online interactive Q & A discussions.

At the meeting, the literature army made a special report on the market situation and insight under the epidemic situation of China's aluminum industry, and introduced the operation of China's aluminum industry from January to May. In the first five months of this year, China's alumina output was 28.93 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, of which the daily output in May was 191000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, and a month on month decrease of 5.3%; the output of electrolytic aluminum was 14.81 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, of which the daily output in May was 96000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and a month on month decrease of 2.9%; the aluminum production was 20.95 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, of which the daily output in May was 167000 Tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.7% and a month on month decrease of 5.5%.

The literature army stressed that although China's macro-economy has been greatly affected by the Xinguan epidemic since this year, due to the particularity of the aluminum smelting process, aluminum production has maintained a normal growth, basically not affected by the epidemic. At the same time, as the downstream aluminum processing enterprises speed up their resumption of work and production after the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the rapid growth of domestic aluminum consumption has been effectively promoted The rapid decline of internal aluminum dominant inventory has supported the sharp rise of aluminum price, especially in the first three months of this year. Therefore, the overall benefit of aluminum smelting industry in the first half of this year is better. However, at the same time, the domestic and foreign aluminum prices have also been inverted, the import window of aluminum products has been opened, the import volume of non forged aluminum has increased significantly, and the export volume of aluminum and aluminum products has decreased. Customs statistics show that from January to May this year, China's net exports of aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 790000 tons, of which, the net inflow of unwrought aluminum was 274000 tons.

After the epidemic, the domestic supply of raw aluminum, the trend of aluminum price, the situation of domestic consumption and export, and how to deal with the hot issues concerned by enterprises were analyzed in detail.

In terms of supply, domestic aluminum prices were generally at a high level in the first half of the year, which slowed down the pace of production reduction of high-cost aluminum plants. In addition, the accelerated release of newly built and put into production capacity, as well as the increase in imports of aluminum products and the recovery growth of recycled aluminum, led to the intensification of domestic supply surplus and increased the inventory pressure. At present, the de stocking speed has been significantly reduced, and the inventory inflection point is expected It will also appear in the fourth quarter of this year. In terms of domestic demand, the government should seize the opportunity to increase investment in construction, transportation and machinery manufacturing. It is expected that domestic aluminum consumption in the whole year will remain the same as last year. In terms of export, it is expected to face a more severe trade environment in the future. First of all, trade frictions will further expand. Coupled with the decline in the growth rate of foreign demand (which is expected to drop by 12% year-on-year), it will also increase the difficulty of export. The export situation is not optimistic. The export data of the first five months of this year shows an accelerated downward trend. At the same time, the global spread of the epidemic will also aggravate international trade frictions, making the trade order more complex. It is expected that the number of trade remedy cases will be further increased, and the politicization tendency of trade friction will be more obvious. In short, the export situation will be more severe. It is estimated that the annual export volume of aluminum products will drop by 10% - 15%. Therefore, in the future, the main force of aluminum consumption also depends on the domestic demand driven by government investment. This year's government work report proposed the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand. In the whole year, it is planned to arrange 3.75 trillion yuan of special bonds for local governments, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan over last year, increase the proportion of special bonds that can be used as project capital, and 600 billion yuan of investment is arranged within the central budget. 39000 old urban residential areas have been renovated. We will support the installation of elevators, develop diversified community services such as dining and cleaning, strengthen the construction of major projects such as transportation and water conservancy, and increase the national railway construction capital by 100 billion yuan. Aluminum enterprises should seize the application demand in these fields and further strengthen the work of expanding aluminum application market. For example, in the application of structural materials, in addition to continue to expand the application of aluminum in the fields of construction and transportation, we will focus on expanding the application of packaging, aluminum alloy furniture and urban public use in the field of people's livelihood. In the application of functional materials, in addition to continue to expand the application of aluminum in the field of conductivity and heat conduction, the application of aluminum air power generation system in emergency power supply of base station is mainly promoted in recent years.

In the long run, the development pattern of China's aluminum industry remains unchanged, the structural reform on the supply side will continue to advance, the transformation and upgrading of consumption will also be accelerated, the trend of global economic integration cannot be reversed, and the rigid demand for Chinese aluminum products in the international market will continue for a long time. In short, the foundation for the healthy development of China's aluminum industry is very solid, that is, the ceiling of electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been formed and has a complete industrial chain. In addition, backed by the strong domestic market demand, as long as enterprises keep their determination, do their own things well, adhere to high-quality development, green development and sustainable development, the dream of a global aluminum industry power will be realized 。

Liu Qing introduced and analyzed the current development of China's automobile industry and the situation affected by the epidemic situation, with the title of "danger" and "machine" of aluminum for automobile under the epidemic situation.

Liu Qing said that the lightweight solution using aluminum alloy materials can improve the fuel efficiency of fuel vehicles, which is an indisputable fact. Every 10% reduction in body weight can reduce fuel consumption by 6% ~ 7%. Especially for the growing electric vehicle market, it is more important to reduce the body weight. For example, the aluminum alloy lightweight scheme can increase the driving distance and reduce the battery cost. In addition, in recent years, the application of aluminum alloy materials in automobile cover parts is also growing, such as door, hood, tail door, fender and other parts. But the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia earlier this year disrupted the pace of steady growth in the industry, which severely hit the production and sales of the automobile industry in the short term. According to statistics from relevant departments, passenger car sales in the first half of May this year have fallen by 27.4%, of which 30% of the total sales volume has been reduced by a year earlier, and SUV sales have decreased by 20% over the same period. From January to May this year, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars decreased by 40%, including 41% of pure electric passenger cars and 35% of plug-in hybrid passenger cars. In the past two months, governments at all levels have also issued policies to increase support, such as extending the new energy subsidy policy, continuously promoting the purchase tax exemption, increasing the amount of license plate, and not restricting the travel and purchase to increase consumption. Fortunately, we can see that with the effective control of the epidemic situation, various industries have returned to work and production, and the monthly decline rate of automobile sales has gradually narrowed. However, from the whole year, the domestic passenger car market is still not optimistic.

According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the domestic automobile sales volume is expected to drop by 10% ~ 20% in 2020. Roland Berger, an international consulting firm, holds that the domestic auto market is most likely to be affected by the "U-shaped delayed rebound" scenario. In 2020, domestic auto sales will drop by 10%, while in 2021, it is expected to see a 10% - 12% sales rebound.

Liu Qing believes that although the auto market in 2020 will usher in a 10% - 20% decline, the epidemic will eventually pass, and the crisis is only temporary. Therefore, in the medium and long term, based on the comprehensive analysis of policy, supply and demand, China's auto market still has a lot of room for growth.

Based on the title of "technical breakthrough and manufacturing advantages of aluminum plate rolling mill localization", Kangming introduced the aluminum processing equipment and technical field in detail. China No.1 Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd., which has been committed to China's metallurgical processing field, has the world's advanced and first-class design methods and research and development capacity in aluminum plate hot rolling equipment. It has successively developed China's first 2800 mm aluminum plate cold and hot rolling mill, 1700mm hot continuous rolling mill, 1780 mm cold continuous rolling mill and 5500mm plate rolling mill. Its equipment is in northeast light alloy, Southwest Aluminum, Bohai aluminum and Nanshan aluminum Many large-scale aluminum enterprises such as Weiqiao aluminum and Zhongwang aluminum have been put into operation.

Kang Ming said that novel coronavirus pneumonia is a great challenge to the aluminum processing industry in China this year. Enterprises are facing various difficulties. But as the epidemic is gradually under control, the market will rebound in the second half of this year, and the competitive enterprises must seize the opportunity and turn danger into opportunity. In addition, China's aluminum processing industry should speed up the transformation and upgrading, accelerate the transformation from "quantity" to "quality", extend the industrial chain, realize the upgrading of technology and equipment, improve the added value of the industrial chain, and continuously enhance the international competitiveness of the industry.